Monday, November 22, 2010

And When the 1% is Done & Bored?

First, I love this technology,t he idea, the advancement, the systems, and the potential. What I hate is the economics.

Serious question for the new frontier that I have such a passion for: How does one envision the growth of space exploration and development once the 1% of the worlds wealthiest people have bought their rides (even a few times) and the remaining billions of people on the planet can barely afford to pay rent, much less $200k+ for a trip to space, and governments are conducting financial masturbation in an effort to mask their debt bubbles, while creating all the "invisible" money they're printing to cover their asses?

Archaic economic systems cannot support the modern world and the potential we have to grow beyond our wildest imaginations.


Marcel F. Williams said...

Polls have shown that approximately 7% of those wealthy enough to pay $20 million to fly into space would actually do so. Since there are about 100 thousand people out there in the world with enough money to buy a ride, that means that there are about 7000 people who would be willing to put up the big bucks to travel into space. If you assume that only about 10% of that number got around to traveling into space a year, that would mean about 700 passengers a year ($14 billion a year in revenues).

Transporting 700 wealthy tourist into orbit each year would probably require at least 150 to 200 manned spaceflights per year. That's at least 10 to 20 times the current rate of manned launches on the planet. And that's going to significantly drive down the cost of rocket engines which normally cost tens of millions of dollars each and the cost of rocket vehicles.

Dramatic reductions in rocket engine and rocket vehicle cost will mean that a lot more wealthy people will be able afford to travel into space.

If cost eventually fall to a point where every millionaire in the world could afford to fly into space then the demand for spaceflights would go up even more dramatically. There are 10 million millionaires on the planet. If only 7% want to travel into space and only 10% of that number get around to doing it each year, that would mean 70,000 wealthy passengers per year requiring 15 to 20 thousand manned launches per year requiring the mass production of nearly 100 thousand rocket engines per year. And this should send the cost of rockets and rocket engines spiralling downward even more.

However, I think that once space tourism becomes popular, the percentage of wealthy people wanting to travel into space will probably rise dramatically from 7% to perhaps has high as 33%.

I assume that the most popular destinations for wealthy tourist will be the Moon, Earth orbiting space stations, and maybe space stations located at one of the Lagrange points.

Norman Copeland said...

As I have said to douglas, it isn't really about a space race anymore, unless someone says they will build several mosques on the moon.


Hummm shallaaa... [god willing...]

windbourne said...

If anybody thinks that space as a good tourist spot will make a killing, they are sadly mistaken. And yes, PM really does a dis-service to private space, though they mean well.
The fact is, that it will be other gov.s as well as business opportunities that will make this profitable. Heck, we all know that staying in space is cheap, except for the supplies that need to be brought up on expensive launch vehicles.
No, BA/ILC Dover will be cheap once the multiple govs. go up there. Not until then.